US midterm elections are a very unreliable way to predict the next president Adam Bolton | US News

By definition, midterm elections in the U.S. are held two years after the presidential term and two years before the next general election.

They are not directly related to who is the President of the United States who lives in the White House.

The midterm elections are about electing officials into Congress — the other is the legislative branch of the U.S. government, and offices in each of the 50 states, the constitutional checks and balances on the centralized federal government in Washington, D.C.

When scrutinizing the many results of massive nationwide votes involving millions of people, it’s worth remembering that extrapolating from the mid-term is a very unreliable way to predict who will be the next president or even who will be the leading candidate. . Contest.

Recent history shows how wrong quick judgments can be. With two years to go until the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump is widely seen as an unlikely candidate for jokes. At a similar point in time before 2008, conventional wisdom favored Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani as the nominees.

Completely different people, Barack Obama and John McCain, ended up actually fighting it. In 1994, Newt Gingrich led the “Republican Revolution,” whose “pact with America” ​​shattered Bill Clinton’s Democrat ambitions.he is time Magazine’s Person of the Year and is expected to be future President. Despite multiple bids for the White House, he never came close.

Final results have yet to be announced, but there are already some signs of political sentiment in the United States.

The “expected” red wave is more of a ripple. In the midterm elections, there is almost always someone who opposes the first president’s party, but Democrats have fared much better under President Joe Biden than under Obama or Clinton.

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Check the results in the US
Surge in Republican support for Trump fails to take off

As Dominic Waghorn reports here, Republican candidates backed by Donald Trump fared far worse than those who avoided him.

Only a handful of GOP candidates are interested in running for “big thieves” — the false claim that Mr. Trump is really winning re-election in 2020, and GOP analysts believe the party is now moving away from Donald Trump’s obsession.

Pennsylvania Republican Senate candidate Dr. Mohamed Oz pointedly called Democrat John Fettman to concede defeat. Mr Trump is said to be angry at his wife Melania for supporting the TV doctor.Fox News Belittling Mr Trump on election night and in Rupert Murdoch’s leading US newspapers The Wall Street Journal and the New York Post, He was strongly criticized. This week, The Washington Post called the former president a “dumb.”

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“Red Wave” failed to show

Control of the U.S. Senate is vested in three states that also play a key role in determining the outcome of the 2020 presidential race: Nevada, Arizona and Georgia. With Republicans voting less strongly than they had hoped, a special election runoff in Georgia on Dec. 6 will be key. Under state law, the winner must receive more than 50 percent of the vote. In the first round, Democratic incumbent pastor Rafael Warnock got 49.2 percent, while his Republican opponent, former soccer star Herschel Walker, got 48.7 percent.

From January next year, the lower house of Congress, the House of Representatives, will switch from Democrats to Republicans. Kevin McCarthy will replace Nancy Pelosi as the third-highest elected office speaker in the United States. The Republican House is likely to block President Biden from passing any further major legislation. The investigation into the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol and Trump’s role in it could be put on hold.

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Donald Trump may soon be yesterday’s news as right-wing US media turns to Ron DeSantis
Can Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis stop Donald Trump from running for the White House?

The night’s standout winner was 44-year-old Florida Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis, who won re-election in a landslide in what is now Trump’s home state.Another name to watch is the high-profile, ambitious JD Vance, bestselling author of “Hillbilly Dirge.”. He had a poor campaign, but still held the Ohio Senate seat comfortably for Republicans.

Just before the election, people assumed that the 2024 race would be a repeat of 2020: Biden vs. Trump. Both have indicated their intention to stand up again, although neither has yet made an official statement. An incumbent president like Mr. Biden usually faces no serious challenge from his own party if he (all men so far) comes up with his name. The Trump machine looks unrivaled.

Expect Trump-DeSantis fight

The Democrats’ relatively modest fiasco this week appeared to cement Mr Biden’s position. But there is now a question mark for Mr Trump, despite his prior insistence that the GOP’s poor performance has nothing to do with him. A nomination battle between Mr Trump and Mr DeSantis is widely expected. Things can’t be so straightforward.

Mr Trump faces a busy few days. On Monday, he was subpoenaed to appear before the House inquiry on Jan. 6 — although whether he will appear is a matter of conjecture. On Tuesday, he promised a “very significant announcement” that he said would be “probably” the largest in U.S. history. It is widely expected to be the official launch of his re-election bid in 2024. Win or lose, the campaign is Trump’s moneymaker.

Becoming president would be the best way to escape the various civil and legal lawsuits that have engulfed him. But top Republicans don’t want him as their nominee, and pressure is mounting for him to delay. If he quits, Mr. DeSantis will surely come forward. However, the Republican nomination is sure to have a contentious primary season, and it’s uncertain whether Mr. DeSantis will be the winner. If DeSantis engages in a bloody contest with Trump while others position themselves as compromise candidates, his prospects will be even more uncertain.

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The answer to the Republican candidate’s dilemma could determine whether Joe Biden, who celebrates his 80th birthday on Nov. 20, is really bidding for the Democratic nomination and re-election. Analyzing the data, Republican pollster Frank Lentz explained that Mr. Biden is the only Democratic candidate likely to beat Mr. Trump (which he has already done once), but paradoxically, any other Republican candidate Everyone will beat Mr. Biden. If it doesn’t oppose Mr. Trump, Democrats will be wise to choose someone other than Mr. Biden.

The fallibility of opinion polls

The erroneous nature of U.S. opinion polls adds further uncertainty. Polls and the data mining aggregators that work for them, like Nate Silver’s, had another bad night this week. John Della Volpe, the poll leader at Harvard’s Kennedy School, does a better job when he foresees a “red ripple.”

He noted that most business polls are commissioned by right-leaning entities and tend to show that Republicans are doing better than they really are. In particular, their sample failed to reflect the high level of participation of young voters and their centrist leanings, likely driven by the Supreme Court’s ruling against abortion.

All of this means we don’t yet know what the political battleground will be in 2024, nor who the “front runners” will be. It would be unwise to read too much into the midterms or focus too much on the experts who tell us that President Trump is in fact a certainty in 2024. The baffling democratic miracle really came to this November’s vote.

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