Texas GOP to sweep statewide offices, KENS 5 poll shows

Gov. Greg Abbott cemented a seven-point lead over Beto O’Rourke, with a vast majority of voters saying they would not change their minds. Election day is November. 8.

SAN ANTONIO — Republican candidates will sweep the statewide race again in November, a new Texas poll shows, a feat Republicans have accomplished in every election cycle since 1996 .

“Texas Decides” is a joint effort of the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation (THPF) and KENS 5 and its TEGNA Texas sister stations WFAA in Dallas, KHOU in Houston and KVUE in Austin. It is based on a survey of 1,172 likely Texas voters conducted Sept. 6-15, 2022. Its confidence interval is +/- 2.9%. The report examines voting intent in the November 2022 Texas election.

Elections will be held on November 8. Early voting will begin on October 24.

Part 1 of this poll, posted here, looks at the major statewide races in Texas in the upcoming election. Parts 2 and 3, to be released later this week, will focus on the Hispanic population’s perception of the candidate and the issue of culture wars, respectively.

main findings

The polls showed that the governor. Greg Abbott leads Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke 51 percent to 44 percent in the Texas gubernatorial race, and most voters have made up their minds. Only 3 percent of respondents were unsure who they would vote for in the state’s most high-profile race.

The data provided several bright spots for Democrats. Young voters need to break 2020 turnout records for Democratic challengers to overtake most Republicans.

Troubled incumbent Attorney General Ken Paxton has the toughest race of all Republicans running statewide, but he still leads the Democrats 47% to 42% in the polls Party member Rochelle Garza.

Predictions for lieutenant gubernatorial races reflect the attorney general’s racial numbers. Incumbent Dan Patrick leads Democratic challenger Mike Collier 48% to 42%.

A handful of Republican lawmakers and county judges backed Collier, but the cross-party pro-Democrat politician is not well known across the state.

Jones said the national Democratic Party is unlikely to inject a lot of money into any statewide campaign, meaning Texas Democrats are mostly left to fend for themselves.

However, the party will have a particular interest in San Antonio, which is the state’s only two U.S. House races.

Residents of southern Texas may see a barrage of ads for the U.S. House of Representatives. Henry Quellar and his Republican challenger Cassie Garcia in the 28th District of the US House of Representatives.

They will also see ads for newcomers Michelle Vallejo and Monica De La Cruz, both campaigning for the 15th District of the United States.

Democrats will also work to maintain control of the judgeships in Bexar and Harris counties and hope to reverse the judgeship in Tarrant County, Jones said.

Here’s a breakdown of each race in the poll:

Texas gubernatorial race

Among likely voters, Republican incumbent Greg Abbott has a 7-point lead over Democrat Beto O’Rourke (51 percent to 44 percent), the poll found. Among the most likely (and almost certain) voters, the lead grew to 10 percentage points (53% to 43%). Only 1% of voters in both categories (likely/most likely) said they would vote for liberal Mark Tipitz and Green Party candidate Delilah Barrios.

THPF CEO Jason Villalba said of the poll’s results, “Governor Abbott’s strength with rural and Anglo voters continues to strengthen his stubbornness in the 2022 Texas gubernatorial race. structural support.” While O’Rourke has proven himself a worthwhile-working opponent, barring a significant change in the makeup of the electorate in November, the governor. Abbott will remain the political and thought leader in Texas politics. Only new voters can change the tide. “

Perhaps the most important finding of the polls in the gubernatorial race is that voters appear to be hardening on their choices, with little room to move through November. In fact, 95% of likely voters who said they would vote for Abbott told us they were “sure” of their voting choice. On the other hand, 94 percent of likely O’Rourke voters said they were “sure” about the choice.

When you break down support between races, Abbott holds a nearly two-to-one advantage over O’Rourke among white voters, with the incumbent being the choice of 63 percent of his challenger’s 33 percent. O’Rourke has a strong advantage among black voters, but O’Rourke is up 79 percent compared to Abbott’s 16 percent. Hispanic voters were even closer, with 53 percent planning to vote for O’Rourke and 39 percent planning to vote for Abbott.

Texas lieutenant governor race

In the lieutenant governor race, Republican incumbent Dan Patrick (48%) leads Democrat Mike Collier (42%) by six points among likely voters. Among the most likely (and almost certain) voters, Patrick also has an eight-point lead over Collier, 50 to 42 percent. Meanwhile, 2% of likely voters and 3% of most likely (and almost certain) voters intend to support liberal Shanna Steele.

In terms of voters who voted “sure” in the lieutenant gubernatorial race, 95% said they would vote for Patrick and 91% said they would vote for Collier. In other words, only 5% and 9%, respectively, said they might change their minds.

race for texas attorney general

In the Attorney General election, Republican incumbent Ken Paxton leads Democrat Rochelle Garza by 5 percentage points (47% to 42%) among likely voters, and in the most likely (almost certainly) ) by 7 points (49% to 42%), to 3% of likely and most likely (almost certainly) voters who intend to vote for liberal Mark Ash.

In this race, only 8% of likely voters and 6% of most likely (and almost certain) voters remain undecided.

“Beto O’Rourke’s (potential) silver lining could be his mobilization efforts (in the gubernatorial race) to get the Democratic votes close enough that fellow Democrat Rochelle Garza (Rochelle Garza) can beat Ken Paxton in the race for attorney general,” said Mark P. Jones, director of research and analysis at the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation.

However, Jones said Garza isn’t currently raising enough money to buy the business time she might need to properly introduce herself to Texas voters.

farther ballot

in the game comptroller of texas, Republican incumbent Glenn Heger leads Democrat Janet Dudin by 8 points (46% to 38%) among likely voters and 10 points among most likely (and almost certain) voters percentage points (49% – 39%). Only 3 percent of voters in both categories said they would support liberal Alonzo Echevarria-Garza.

in the game land commissioner, Republican Dawn Buckingham leads Democrat Jay Kleiberg among likely voters (46% to 38%) and 12 points among most likely (and almost certain) voters (50% to 38%) %). In this race, 2% of likely voters and 1% of almost certain voters said they would support Greens candidate Alfred Morrison.

Republican incumbent Sid Miller (48%) has a 7-point lead over Democrat Susan Hayes (41%) in the election. Agriculture Commissioner among possible voters. Among almost certain voters, Miller’s lead grew to 11 points (51% to 40%).

in the game railway commissioner, Republican incumbent Wayne Christian leads Democrat Luke Wofford by 7 points among likely voters (44% to 37%) and by 10 among most likely (and almost certain) voters percentage points (47% vs. 37%). Here, 4 percent of likely and almost certain voters said they would support liberal Jaime Diez, while 1 percent of both groups said they would vote for the Greens’ Hunter Crow.

Favorability of Texas Politicians

According to the “Texas Decides” poll, the top three politicians likely to voters in Texas are the governor. Greg Abbott (52%), Senator. Ted Cruz (49%) and former President Donald Trump (49%).

The three least favorite politicians among likely Texas voters are Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (67%), House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (60%) and Vice President Kamala Harris (58%).

Former San Antonio mayor and former U.S. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Julian Castro was praised by 32% of respondents, 35% disapproved, and 33% said they didn’t know him well enough to give an opinion.

His brother, the current U.S. House of Representatives. Joaquin Castro, who represents the 20th District of the U.S. House of Representatives in San Antonio, was favored by 29 percent, 32 percent disliked, and 39 percent said they had no opinion.

See all results for “Texas Decides” here or below:


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