Bird flu: Health officials develop COVID-style model to study pandemic potential | UK news

Health officials are developing a COVID-like bird flu response plan, simulating what would happen if the virus started spreading from person to person.

The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) said there was “no evidence yet that the virus is getting better at infecting humans or other mammals”, but warned that high levels of transmission in birds suggested “ongoing risk“.

Make sure the country is prepared for what might happen Avian Influenza Human outbreaks, health officials are modeling scenarios of human transmission.

it happened in a Cambodian girl, 11, dies from bird fluThe girl’s father has also tested positive for the virus, but it is unclear whether he caught the virus from his daughter or through exposure to infected birds.

At least 11 more people have been tested in the country.

If this is an example of human-to-human transmission, it is One of the first instances where this happened.

The UKHSA said there was some evidence that people caught the virus from family members or healthcare facilities, but there was little or no evidence of “sustained” transmission between people.

The UKHSA is modeling what would happen if this changed, looking at two scenarios: a mild scenario with an infection fatality rate similar to COVID, around 0.25%, and a more severe scenario similar to the 1918 flu pandemic In some cases, about 2.5% or people infected with the virus died.

This means that in mild cases, one in 400 people infected with the virus will die, while in severe cases, one in 40 infected people will die.

Please use Chrome for a more accessible video player

Bird flu becomes endemic

read more:
Bird flu has spread to mammals — so how worried should humans be?
WHO warns against assuming bird flu risk to humans will remain low

UKHSA said that even if the infection fatality rate is quite low, severe cases can lead to “significant behavioral differences related to recent experience with the pandemic”.

Based on the models, UKHSA is looking at how to detect outbreaks in humans, including using COVID-style lateral flow testing.

It is also developing a blood test to detect antibodies against the virus and analyze genetic mutations that may indicate increased health risks in humans.

The world’s leading flu experts will meet on Friday to discuss the threat of bird flu to humans.

A group of scientists, regulators and vaccine makers meets twice a year to decide which seasonal flu strains to include in the upcoming winter vaccine.

The meeting will also discuss the risk of the virus spreading to humans and causing a pandemic.

the virus has Jump from bird to otter, fox and catwhile mink farm outbreaks prompted Concerns about the spread of the virus among animals.

“We are more prepared (than COVID), but even if we are more prepared, we are not prepared enough,” said Sylvie Briand, WHO’s global director of infectious hazard preparedness, ahead of the meeting. .”

“We need to really keep trying to deal with the pandemic.”

Source link